Macroeconomic systemic risk
per country — quantified.
The SGI Index combines debt data from IMF, BIS and ECB into one composite risk score per country. 10 indicators, 3 pillars, 45 countries — with quarterly data from 2005.
10 indicators. 3 pillars. One score.
The SGI score is calculated from 10 macroeconomic indicators, distributed across 3 weighted pillars. Each indicator is derived from official international datasets and recalculated quarterly.
Financial Pillar
45%Structural Pillar
35%Social Pillar
20%The numbers in perspective
SGI Index Backtest: 2005–2026
The SGI formula applied to historical data (BIS, IMF, ECB). The SGI measures systemic fragility — the higher the score, the greater the impact when a shock hits the system. Before every major crisis, the SGI was already rising.
Historical data: BIS, IMF WEO, ECB SDW, OECD. Calculated using the same SGI formula (45% Financial, 35% Structural, 20% Social). Estimates before 2020 have an error margin of ±2-3 points.
The pattern: SGI rose before every crisis
The SGI doesn't predict crash dates — but measures systemic fragility. The higher the SGI when a shock hits, the deeper the impact. With a low SGI (1987: ~34), the market recovered quickly. With a high SGI (2008: 54+), recovery took years.
The current global SGI stands at ~65.2 — higher than before the 2008 crisis. The system is more fragile than it was then. What does this mean for your portfolio?
Read the full analysisWhat's included
SGI Dashboard
Live composite risk score per country, broken down by pillar and indicator.
Country Ranking
45 countries ranked by systemic fragility. Trends and comparisons.
Historical Data
20+ years of quarterly data. Compare current levels with pre-crisis periods.
Interest Rate Stress Test
Simulate the effect of rate hikes on debt dynamics per country.
Crisis Risk Scanner
Automated scan for crisis indicators per country.
Bond & Debt Analysis
Bond market analysis and debt dynamics visualization.
Full access
All tools, all data, all countries.
FAQ
Soldek Capital B.V. | The SGI Index is an analytical research tool, not investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor.